COMMENT: Will Afghanistan Change?

THE evolution of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship has always been inconsistent, and rooted in deep mistrust, blame games, propaganda, conspiracy theories, perpetual external interference and repeated cycles of violence. The bilateral equation has experienced many irritants, each having abundant potential for a complete breakdown. Despite these complexities and substantial investments by external players, the relationship has somehow survived every dilemma, only to experience new and more challenging negative developments. The current state of bilateral tensions – though one of the most damaging – is nothing new and should be seen in context. Since August 1947, there has never been a decade in which Afghanistan did not make a deliberate effort to export insurgencies and unrest to Pakistan, mostly by exploiting internal socio-political grievances within segments of Pakistani society, or by capitalising on ethnic and linguistic affiliations. These offensive trends were initiated by Afghanistan in the pursuit of enduring objectives such as Lar-O-Bar Yaw Afghan, Pakhtunistan, historical claims and, at times, on the behest of third parties pursuing inimical motives towards the integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan. The concept of ‘strategic depth’ was relevant till the conclusion of World War II. Given its hostile conduct since Aug 15, 1947, no sane person could have imagined such ‘depth’ for Pakistan on Afghan territory On the other hand, Pakistan persistently claimed to be working for a stable, peaceful, and friendly Afghanistan, objectives that to this day are interpreted as a quest for ‘strategic depth’. Irrespective of the past statements by a couple of leaders, it is naïve to consider that Pakistan was pursuing ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan. In the security domain, the concept of ‘strategic depth’ was relevant till the conclusion of World War II, and was generally understood as a mutually-agreed arrangement under which one nation-state could place its most p